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Elite Men's Road Race Preview |
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The final event of the world
championships the men's road race is finally here. Of the four
road races so far three have regrouped on the final run in to
the finish with only the u23 men's race having seen an escape
stay away.
Past Winners
2013 - Rui Costa
2012 - Philippe Gilbert
2011 - Mark Cavendish
2010 - Thor Hushovd
2009 - Cadel Evans
2008 - Alessandro Ballan
2007 - Paolo Bettini
2006 - Paolo Bettini
2005 - Tom Boonen
2004 - Oscar Freire
2003 - Igor Astarloa
2002 - Mario Cipollini
2001 - Oscar Freire
2000 - Romans Vainsteins
Previous Editions
2013
1 Rui Costa
2 Joaquim Rodriguez +0
3 Alejandro Valverde +15
4 Vincenzo Nibali +15
5 Andriy Hryvko +31
6 Peter Sagan +34
7 Simon Clarke +34
8 Maxim Iglinsky +34
9 Philippe Gilbert +34
10 Fabian Cancellara +34
2012
1 Philippe Gilbert
2 Edvald Boasson Hagen +4
3 Alejandro Valverde +5
4 John Degenkolb +5
5 Lars Boom +5
6 Allan Davis +5
7 Thomas Voeckler +5
8 Ramunas Navardauskas +5
9 Sergio Henao +5
10 Oscar Freire +5
The Course
14 laps of an 18.2km circuit for a total of 254.8km.
The first four kilometres are flat before the road starts to
climb. The first two kilometres of the 5km Confedaracion climb
have three sections at 8%. The average gradient of the first
3km is around 4.6% before it levels off towards the top to
around 1-1.5% On the first lap it might not distance too many
riders but in the final laps it will start to hurt especially
if the pace is high.
After a quick descent riders face the Mirador, at just 1km
long it might not sound overly difficult but it has two
sections at 10% including the first 200m. After levelling off
it again kicks up to 10% with around 300m to the top. The
final 100m is flatter at just 2%
Over the top of the climb there is just over four kilometres
remaining. Half of that is downhill with the final 2km flat to
the line. The Mirador with its steep sections offers a final
opportunity to attack and distance any fast finishers. With
4km to go it is not a long way to go but they might have a
chance to hold on if no organised chase is quickly formed.
The Contenders
Australia
Australia brings the strongest team that is clear. They have
not just one genuine contender but two in Simon Gerrans and
Michael Matthews. Former winner Cadel Evans as well should
never be discounted and a rider like Simon Clarke who finished
seventh last year gives the team two other options.
Something else that is clear is the target on Gerrans’ back.
Since joining Orica-GreenEDGE in 2012 his wins have shot him
to stardom both in Australia and the world of cycling. On the
short sharp climbs he has the ability to go with the best. His
finish is probably the fastest in the peloton of any non
sprinter. Gerrans beat Peter Sagan in the 2013 Tour and Andre
Greipel in the Tour Down Under this year. Given the team here
Matthews or Gerrans could look to get away on the final climb
knowing that the other will be ready in a sprint. Comes in
having won both the GP Quebec and GP Montreal.
Michael Matthews may have missed the Tour this year with
injury but took stages and wore the leaders jersey at both the
Giro and Vuelta. Matthew's biggest advantage is his ability to
climb, making him beyond dangerous in a sprint finish. If it
is together for a sprint finish expect the Australian's to
take control and Gerrans will move in to leadout duty as he
did at Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco. No other team will have
a combination this strong.
With riders like Cadel Evans and Simon Clarke expect to see
Australia in the mix from the start. The pressure is unlikely
to get to them. We saw the Aussie u23 team control all day,
the elite race is longer and while the team is bigger they
will no doubt be expected to carry a lot of the work.
John Degenkolb
During the Vuelta it looked as if Degenkolb would be one of
the top favourites but since then was in hospital on
antibiotics. He was climbing well but there is over 4,200m of
climbing in the race and all of the worlds top climbers are
here. If he is going well he should not be discounted but the
time of the bike is likely to have cost him and hurt his
chances. Just missed the podium two years ago finishing
fourth.
Spain
On paper it is a strong team, but then it normally is. When it
comes to working together the team often falls apart and costs
them glory. Last year Valverde couldn't or wouldn't follow
Costa when he attacked and then Valverde and Rodriguez
finished in the two minor podium places. Valverde has been
named the leader but what sort of support he will get from
Rodriguez is yet to be seen. Spain doesn't bring a sprinter
and while Valverde is quick he is not as quick as Gerrans so
expect to see Valverde and even Rodriguez attack on the final
climb and try to get away. It came back together in the junior
women and men and the elite women but in the u23 a solo rider
held off the chase.
Peter Sagan
If you ignore everything else and just look at the profile it
looks like one for Peter Sagan. If you then consider
everything else then calling Peter Sagan a favourite is
probably a little generous. He might have won a third green
jersey in a row at the Tour de France but he failed to win a
stage. He then went to the Vuelta and also failed to win a
stage despite several being made for him. Seven wins this
year, which sounds good but for a rider like Sagan it is well
below his past two seasons. His last win came at the end of
June and it must now be playing on his mind. He said this year
was about quality not quantity. Well the quantity has dropped
and have come in mostly the same races as last year meaning no
change in quality.
He signed a big contract with Tinkoff-Saxo and with his future
secure he doesn't seem motivated. Still don't discount him.
Only two teammates and even if they are the Velits brothers
and that loss to Gerrans at the Tour last year must be playing
his mind ahead of here.
Fabian Cancellara
Has made the road race his big focus this year skipping the
team trial for it. Won Ronde van Vlaanderen again this year as
well as numerous top placings in the spring classics. But the
rainbow jersey in the road race is the one thing missing from
his palmares. We have seen him climb well at numerous points
in his career but in this field with over 4,200m of climbing
will he be able to stick with the front group? One big
advantage is the descent. There is one ahead of the final
climb and one with around 4km to go. If Cancellara can stay
with the front group on the final climb expect to see him try
and go away on the descent. The road flattens out but if he
has a gap will time trial to the finish. Has a fast sprint but
you again have to go back to can he beat the likes of Gerrans
and the answer is no.
In Michael Albasini Switzerland have a very strong rider to
both support Cancellara or as another winner.
Belgium
Another team dripping with talent including former winner
Philippe Gilbert. Since his classics dominance in 2011,
Gilbert has never returned to that level. Still picks up wins
but not the way he did. The final climb will no doubt see an
attack from Gilbert but distancing others will be difficult.
With another former winner in Tom Boonen they have a fast
sprinter but the climbing is likely to be too much. Greg Van
Avermaet often finishes second but he does also win races.
Including a stage at the Eneco Tour and two races in four days
recently in Grand Prix de Wallonie and Primus Classic
Impanis-Van Petegem. Both served as a great warm up and
confidence boost.
Not to forget Van Avermaet was top 10 in both World Tour races
in Canada, finishing 5th in Quebec and 7th in Montreal. Has a
fast finish, will not beat the likes of Gerrans or Degenkolb
but don't be surprised at all to see Van Avermaet right up
there fighting for a medal.
The team also has riders like Jan Bakelants and Tim Wellens.
Ben Swift
The former Track World Champion is a rider who could do well
on this course, but everything will have to go right for him.
Finished 3rd at Milano-Sanremo this year and won a hard
selective stage of Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco although one
of his big rivals again here Michael Matthews had pulled out
by then. Swift had a hard few years with injury but with those
problems behind him has been steadily building up to the level
people expect form him.
His podium at Milano-Sanremo shows he can handle long hard
races. His GB team has some very strong climbers in the likes
of Chris Froome, Peter Kennaugh, the Yates brothers and
Geraint Thomas to support him.
Rui Costa
A deserving winner last year who had one of his best seasons
in the rainbow jersey despite early criticism that he was
finishing second a lot. Went for it last year and things might
have been different if the Spanish had worked together.
Regardless he was not afraid to take a chance and go for it.
It paid off. It will be hard to repeat that performance but
not impossible.
Italy
A team with the current Tour de France Champion Vincenzo
Nibali is one you should take note of. Of the current GC
riders Nibali is one who has proven himself not to just be
strong as a GC rider but also in the hillier one day races.
That said has hardly raced since the Tour de France and
crashed last week. The Italian team also has Fabio Aru who won
stages at both the Tour de France and Vuelta.
Italy's best chance though probably comes from another in
Sonny Colbrelli. Since the start of the month Colbrelli has
finished top five on two stages of the Tour of Britain, 2nd at
Tre Valli Varesine and won Memorial Marco Pantani and GP
Industria & Commercio di Prato.
France
For all the talk about Bouhanni is he really France's best
hope? There is 4,200m of climbing and while we saw him going
well at the Vuelta the Worlds is another thing.
Sylvain Chavanel won the overall at Tour du Poitou-Charentes
and two days late GP Ouest France-Plouay. Only finished 17th
in the individual time trial but that is in line with past
performances. We have seen Chavanel climb well but the course
may be just a little bit too hard for him.
Tony Gallopin however could be a different story. Wore the
yellow jersey at the Tour de France and then won a stage a
couple of days later. Since then has finished 5th at Clasica
Ciclista San Sebastian and 9th in Quebec and 3rd in Montreal.
In a sign his form is good claimed second behind Van Avermaet
at Grand Prix de Wallonie.
Netherlands
In Bauke Mollema and Tom Jelte Slagter the Dutch have two
strong contenders.
Mollema has had another solid year third Tour de Suisse, 10th
Tour de France, second at Clasica Ciclista San Sebastian and
10th in both Quebec and Montreal. Expect to see Mollema
aggressive on the final lap knowing he doesn't have the sprint
to match some of the top favourites.
Slagter has been under the radar for most of the year but
seems to have found some form in the past month. 11th in
Quebec and 12th in Montreal and Primus Classic Impanis-Van
Petegem. If Slagter can build off that he should go well. On
paper it is a course that suits him.
Tom Dumoulin is another name and has had a strong season
especially the second half. Second Baloise Belgium Tour, fifth
Tour de Suisse, second in ITT at the Tour de France, third
Eneco Tour, second Tour of Alberta as well as second at GP
Quebec and sixth in Montreal. Not forgetting his podium in the
individual time trial from earlier in the week.
Michal Kwiatkowski
Kwiatkowski started the year with a bang with a win in Volta
ao Algarve, lead Tirreno-Adriatico and second at Vuelta
Ciclista al Pais Vasco. One of the performers in Ardennes week
with fifth at Amstel Gold and then third at La Flèche Wallonne
and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Had a month off from racing after
the Tour and has bounced back with a stage win and second
overall at the Tour of Britain.
The course suits Kwiatkowski and he is bound to be in the mix.
Possess a quick sprint that could see him in the medals.
Norway
If it comes down to a sprint as we have seen in most of the
road races then Norway is in with a genuine shot of another
rainbow jersey. Alexander Kristoff took the biggest win of his
career winning Milano-Sanremo. Took two stages in the Tour and
was climbing well at The Artic Race of Norway.
Kristoff seems to be strongest after a long hard race but this
will be a real test for him. Still if he is there then he
could make it another gold for Norway.
Norway might have a small team at just three riders but on a
course like this expect to see Nordhaug attack and Boasson
Hagen is a bit of a wildcard who could be crucial in helping
Kristoff to the win.
Daryl Impey
Since being cleared and returned to racing Daryl Impey has
been very strong. Winning the final stage and the overall at
Tour of Alberta. Put in a big turn to lead out Gerrans in
Quebec and finished 4th himself. Did the same again at
Montreal with his strength giving Gerrans a clear gap to the
line. Riding for himself it is possible he may have even taken
the win.
The course suits Impey and he could find himself on the
podium.
Other names to watch: Zdenek Stybar (CZE), Keil Reijnen,
Andrew Talansky and Tejay van Garderen (USA), Michael Valgren
Andersen (DEN), Andrey Amador (CRC), Jack Bauer (NZL),
Alexandr Kolobnev (RUS), Dan Martin (IRL) and Ramunas
Navardauskas (LTU). |
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